Big 3 Mailbag #1: Clay Court Season Outlook
The Big 3 Mailbag will be a weekly mailbag answering several selected questions from Twitter regarding the Big 3.
With the Monte Carlo Masters taking place this week, the two questions selected will give us a nice starting point previewing the rest of the clay court season.
Question 1: Via @TheSenteniel909 on Twitter -
“How realistic of a threat is Alcaraz to Novak and Rafa - I’m thinking more in consistency than in big matches”
Since the Australian Open, Alcaraz has only lost one match. He’s posted a 16-1 record, with titles in Rio and Miami and a semifinal appearance in Indian Wells. He’s been the best player in the world, other than Nadal, in 2022. What he has done as an 18-year-old has been nothing short of remarkable.
In the Rio final, Alcaraz took down Diego Schwartzman 6-2, 6-4 and it wasn’t even as close as that score indicates. The Spaniard dominated from start to finish. It was a jarring result against one of the premier clay court players in the world, one who has given Rafael Nadal fits in the past.
Alcaraz’s talents appear to not be limited to hard courts, if Rio is any indication.
Alcaraz has the game to overwhelm most opponents on any surface. But Alcaraz isn’t looking to beat most opponents. He’s looking to scale the mountain and take down Djokovic and Nadal.
Alcaraz has not demonstrated (yet) that his explosive power can sustain itself long enough to match the defensive longevity Djokovic and Nadal bring to matches, particularly on clay, the most difficult surface to hit through. Alcaraz certainly mixes his game up well with drop shots and forays to the net, but the true essence of his game is power.
Djokovic and Nadal require their opponents to finish points off with high quality shots over and over and over. Alcaraz is no stranger to hitting high quality shots, but Djokovic and Nadal will force Alcaraz to hit these shots more consistently than he ever has before, facing more pressure than he has ever experienced.
With Nadal out of Monte Carlo and Djokovic just returning to action, one would imagine that this tournament is the perfect opportunity for Alcaraz to steal a victory and gain confidence against one of the two men he will likely be chasing over the next several years.
Ultimately, grand slams are the name of the game. By the time the French Open rolls around, Nadal and Djokovic will likely be approaching top gear. Beating one of these two in a best of five sets match, on clay, will serve as a significant measuring stick for Alcaraz.
My feeling is that Alcaraz will be competitive with Djokovic and Nadal during the clay court season but still needs some time competing with them at the highest levels before making that next jump to grand slam champion.
Question 2: Via @tennisnation on Twitter -
What are your thoughts on how the clay season will go for Nadal and Djokovic?
The answer to this question is typically straightforward. Nadal will be the favorite going into every event and Djokovic will be right behind him. Given Djokovic’s absence and Nadal’s injury, there is a lot more doubt entering the 2022 clay court season.
Djokovic will have well over a month to get himself back into form and if Nadal returns for Madrid, he’ll have plenty of time to get himself in order before Roland Garros. At this point in their careers, Roland Garros and winning majors is by far the primary objective.
Based off their histories, I suspect both will enter Roland Garros as the favorites and in fine form. The Big 3 (including Federer) have almost always bounced back in substantial ways following periods of injury or poor play. There is a lot more evidence to support the belief that Djokovic and Nadal will play great during the clay court season than there is to support the contrary.
Of course, we won’t know for sure until both of them actually take the court and start playing matches, but I’d pick both Djokovic and Nadal to be playing in the final weekend of tournaments before the French Open and at the French Open.