Big 3 Newsletter #1: Rome 2006 Final Review and Analysis

2006 Rome Final: Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer

Context:

Entering the 2006 Rome Final, Rafael Nadal was carrying a 52-match winning streak on clay and held a 4-1 record against Roger Federer. Federer had only lost 6 matches since the start of 2005. Three of these defeats came at the hands of the Spaniard, who beat Federer in the finals of Dubai and Monte Carlo, representing Federer’s only defeats five and a half months into the 2006 campaign. Despite Federer being the best player in the world everywhere else and a firm World No. 1, Nadal was beginning to establish his stronghold on the clay court domain. The only thing having kept Federer from entering this match with an 0-5 record against Nadal was a five set victory in the final of the 2005 Miami Masters. In this match, Federer rallied from two sets and a break deficit to win in five sets. Needless to say, the teenager was firmly supplanting himself in Federer’s head.

Key Moments:

1. Federer wins first set tiebreaker 7-0: The winner of the first set won three of the first five Federer/Nadal contests.

2. Nadal overcomes a 4-2 deficit in the second set tiebreaker to win it 7-5.

   • 5-5: Federer Inside-In Forehand Long (Unforced Error)

   • 5-6: Federer Routine Backhand Passing Shot into the Net (Unforced Error)

3. Nadal carries his momentum from the second set, hitting a cross-court backhand passing shot winner to take the break in the third set at 2-2, a set he ultimately wins 6-4.

4. Federer breaks with a forehand down the line winner at 2-1 in the fourth set and cruises 6-2 to set up a deciding fifth set.

5. Federer takes a seemingly decisive 4-1 advantage in the fifth set. Nadal gets back on serve.

6. Federer reaches match point at 6-5 on Nadal’s serve.

   • Match Point # 1: Inside-In Forehand Long (Unforced Error)

   • Match Point # 2: Down the Line Forehand Wide (Unforced Error)

7. Federer takes a 5-3 lead in the tiebreaker

   • 5-3: Short Cross-Court Forehand into the Net (Unforced Error)

   • 5-4: 16-Shot Rally ends with a Federer Forehand Shank (Forced Error)

   • 5-5: Federer Backhand Long off Nadal 89 MPH Topspin First Serve (Unforced Error)

   • 5-6: Federer Forehand Long (Forced Error)

Strategic Insights:

Second Serve Points Played:

Nadal played 26 second serve points throughout the match. By contrast, Federer played 68 second serve points. Both won just over half of these points, but the real story lies in why the discrepancy existed.

Nadal began a vast majority of his points with sidespin serves to Federer’s backhand side. Nadal can achieve the task of getting ahead on serve by executing this tactic, while sprinkling a variety of other serves at other locations. Nadal does not prioritize speed on his serve, which explains how he made 85% of his first serves throughout the course of a five hour five minute match that saw him work through 27 service games.

Federer, by contrast, made 62% of his first serves. Federer was intent on moving forward and extracting short balls in the early stages of points. As a result, he went bigger on his first deliveries. A higher amount of second serve points meant Federer would be drawn into longer rallies and a more physical encounter.

Federer’s Court Positioning:

Despite coming to the net 100 times during the match, Federer remained less proactive from the baseline while returning.

In the first image below, you’ll see Federer standing in front of the baseline after hitting a serve. Throughout this match, Federer’s court positioning while serving was much closer to the baseline than while he was returning. Standing closer to the baseline allows Federer to lower his contact point, take the ball early, create more angles and play an offensive brand of tennis.

In the next image, you’ll see Federer’s court positioning as he prepares to strike the return. He is close to the baseline and in a position where he could look to take control of the point from the onset.

There are certain points where Nadal’s serve is so effective that Federer is forced to retreat and play from further behind the baseline. But there are many points where Federer simply chooses to play a neutral return, retreat and begins to exchange groundstrokes with Nadal. This was not his modus operandi on serve. As a result, Federer often ends up way too far behind the baseline defending.

This first image represents where Federer would typically retreat on return points.

This second image represents how far back Federer could be pushed as a result of allowing Nadal to dictate from the beginning of the point. Any Federer fan would tell you such court positioning is a recipe for disaster.

Shot Variation:

In this match, Nadal hit more of the following:

• Cross-Court and Inside-Out Groundstrokes

Federer, by contrast, hit more of the following:

• Inside-In Groundstrokes

• Approach Shots

• Volleys

• Drop Shots

• Overheads

• Swinging Volleys

• Slice/Chip Shots

What does this tells us?

Federer had to find as many ways as possible to finish points. Nadal, by contrast, was able to rely on his tried and true patterns and shots to win points.

Federer and Nadal Shot Types from the 2006 Rome Final:

http://www.tennisabstract.com/charting/20060514-M-Rome_Masters-F-Roger_Federer-Rafael_Nadal.html

The Big Points:

The key moments of the match reveal that Federer left many opportunities on the table. After the match, Federer expressed that he should have won, whereas Nadal felt that he got lucky.

In reality, this shared view of the match is probably half-accurate. Federer’s commitment to pushing the envelope from an offensive perspective put him in enough positions to close the match out. On the other hand, Nadal’s relentless defense and ball retrieving, from this match and others, likely sat in Federer’s head and led to several of the litany of routine misses Federer had in key moments.

Stats and Factoids:

1. At five hours and five minutes, the 2006 Rome Final is the longest Federer-Nadal match ever.

2. Federer won the first set tiebreaker 7-0. This is the only time Nadal has lost a tiebreaker 7-0 on clay in his career.

3. Federer has played 55 five set matches in his career. This is one of only two matches where he hit zero double faults (Wimbledon QF 2016 vs. Cilic).

4. Nadal did not lose a single match on clay in 2006, part of what would be an 81-match winning streak on clay between 2005-2007.