French Open 2021: Djokovic's Blueprint vs. Nadal
If the 2021 French Open goes as planned, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off in a semifinal match next Friday. The magnitude of this potential match cannot be overstated. The winner of the match would be the significant favorite against a bottom half opponent who would be playing in their first ever French Open final. The prospect of playing Zverev, Tsitsipas, or dare I say Medvedev in a French Open final has to be a salivating thought to both Nadal and Djokovic.
Nadal leads the head-to-head between these two 19-7 on clay and has won their last five meetings, only dropping two sets. Djokovic’s last clay court victory over Nadal came in Madrid in 2016, a year during which Djokovic was peaking and Nadal was far below his typical clay-court self.
What can Djokovic do differently at this French Open to turn the tide against Nadal?
Take Advantage of the Conditions
The common thought entering the 2020 French Open was that it would be one of the toughest for Nadal to win. Outside of the fact that it was an abridged season due to the pandemic, the tournament was played in the Fall, when conditions would be slower, which would reduce the impact of Nadal’s topspin forehand.
What was missed in this conversation, which in my opinion was very reductionist, was that Nadal is great at the French Open for more reasons than just his forehand. One of these primary strengths is defending from the baseline.
I wrote a piece earlier this week detailing why Nadal is so great on clay, if you would like to read further about his defensive exploits on the red dirt.
In short, Nadal’s clay court defense is predicated on speed from deep behind the baseline, whereas Djokovic’s defense is more based on open-stance prowess and flexibility, closer to the baseline. On slower courts, it is tougher for Djokovic, who isn’t the hardest hitter on tour, to pierce the clay with his groundstrokes. In the 2020 final, Djokovic committed a whopping 52 unforced errors in a three set match that barely lasted over two hours. Nadal’s defense was suffocating as Djokovic felt the need to overhit.
Given the increased temperatures in the 2021 edition of the French Open, it will be easier for Djokovic to hit through the court and take command of the points.
While Nadal’s forehand certainly is more effective in faster, higher-bouncing conditions, it is still an extremely difficult shot to deal with on clay in any conditions.
Dictate with the Forehand
In the Rome final this year, Nadal was able to keep the ball high and deep cross-court to Djokovic’s backhand and take control of many of the points. Djokovic is typically able to take control of the point with his backhand. But against Nadal, on clay, he’ll need to take considerably more risk and move around the backhand and go big on the forehand, which he did not do in Rome.
If you watch Djokovic-Nadal from Miami in 2007, you’d see that Djokovic used to rely much more on his forehand and used to take much bigger cuts off that wing. He’d be wise to reintroduce that strategy into his game were he to face Nadal in Paris.
Djokovic cannot allow Nadal to control points with his forehand. He’s been at his best against Nadal on clay when he has been the aggressor. In the 2020 French Open, by contrast, Nadal hit 31 winners to 14 unforced errors. Complete dominance, highlighted by a 6-0 opening set.
Deep Returns
Djokovic, despite losing in the Rome Final, did a fantastic job hitting deep returns. If he expects to keep Nadal in check, he’ll need to consistently hit his returns deep and ALSO maintain an aggressive mentality in the points. Against Rafa on clay, it’s not enough to get an upper hand off the return. It’s crucial to obtain control in the battle of court positioning and begin dictating.
This may be Djokovic’s top singular advantage over Nadal on clay.
Avoid Defensive Slices
When the pandemic began, I had ample free time. With that free time, I went back and watched every Djokovic-Nadal match I could find the highlights/full match for on YoutTube.
A consistent note I wrote was that it is pivotal for Djokovic to avoid defending with underspin. If Djokovic is defending with underspin, it means Nadal is either in total control of the point or is about to take total control of the point. It has been proven to be an unsuccessful shot for the Serbian.
Aggressive Second Serves
If we’ve seen any weakness from Nadal’s return game over the years it is that he has a tendency, at times, to leave returns short in the court.
With his deep return positioning, Nadal has to inject more into his shot to produce a quality return. If the serve is able to beat him with pace, height or location, Nadal can be had on the return.
In Rome, Djokovic was not as aggressive as he has been with his second serve in recent years. He’ll need to be firm in firing off big first and second serves. This is a massive opportunity for the Serb to take control of the points.
Beating Nadal at the French Open is the hardest feat in tennis, but if there is one man most likely to pull off in 2021, it is Novak Djokovic. He has to be fearless, take Nadal out of his comfort zone, and look to use the speed of the court to his advantage.